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For those who don’t know, there are a number of big state elections going on today, including gubernatorial contests in Virginia and New Jersey, two states I have a vested interest in. Republicans are expected to win both, and the chattering class is frothing to use this as some kind of astrological prediction that Obama’s influence has waned and the GOP is resurging after its ignominious defeat last year.

I don’t think it’s as easy as that. Off-year elections always have low turnout, owing to our general lack of interest in participatory democracy and the many difficulties people have in getting to vote (Why don’t we make elections a federal holiday again?). I know from folks on the ground in VA that Creigh Deeds simply isn’t running a good campaign, and his attempts to tack to the right of Tim Kaine (!) will end up costing him his shot at the governor’s chair. Again, I’m not really the guy you want to talk to about deep state-level politics outside my own state, but just based on what I know, I think it’s too simple to claim that this is all about Obama.

With that said, given that today celebrates the first anniversary of Obama’s historic election, it’s worth looking back to see what has become of this presidency so far. Unfortunately, the answer is “Not much.”

You can definitely make the argument that the general callowness and cowardice of Congress, hostage that it is to special interests with easy access and lots of money, has hampered Obama’s attempts at crafting historic legislation. David Roberts at Grist recently wrote a fantastic post detailing how the Senate’s current structure and process is a lot like California’s–a supermajority is required for everything, thus giving all the power to scum-sucking weasels like Joe Lieberman, who is willing to derail the massive effort to reform health care just to feel important. But this begs the question — when the Dems were considering kicking Lieberman out of the caucus for supporting McCain, why did Obama, personally, twist arms to ensure he stayed with them?

It might just be poor judgment on Obama’s part, but I think it goes back to a deep, core governing philosophy of his. Obama campaigned on bipartisanship and ending rancor in Washington — a laudable goal, to be sure, but he takes it to such extremes that he often ends up sabotaging the very goals he wants to achieve. Obama’s support for a watered-down “trigger” version of the public option, as well as his administration’s continued backdoor dealings with insurance and pharmaceutical companies, have left many organizations and activists seeking real health care reform out in the cold. His desire to ensure every interest gets something (except, of course, people like you and I), combined with the “Win at all costs” mentality of conscienceless sharks like Rahm Emanuel, has led to a situation where we have to depend on Harry Reid(!!) for the spine necessary to push the public option in the Senate. That, as Hector Barbossa might say, is a game of long odds.

And even that doesn’t begin to explain the breathtaking speed at which he has embraced some of the foulest policies of his predecessor. Obama now owns Afghanistan completely, just as he willingly took ownership of the bailout and is willing to sit by while Goldman Sachs continues to prey on what remains of America’s financial stability. Even the most laudable successes of his presidency so far — the stimulus package and the credit card reform bill — just have so many “Gotchas!” attached to them that it’s hard to see them as victories. Guantanamo, illegal surveillance, commitment to climate change protection — you name it, he’s either embraced Bush policies or some waffling half-measure that doesn’t go nearly far enough.

Do I regret voting for Obama, or spending long hours in the cold campaigning for him? Not a whit. I knew going in that his chief mission would be to soothe the powers that be and assure Americans that the institutions we’re supposed to believe in are doing all right. I knew going in that the combination of John McCain and Sarah Palin would be both ludicrous and dangerous for the country, and that we’d be far worse off now with them at the helm. I knew going in that America needed a symbol as much as it needed substance — some concrete evidence that the world could change for the better, and that we could recapture and revitalize the Dream that binds us as a nation.

But the time for symbols is long past. Just as electing our first black president didn’t automatically eradicate racism in America, so too did the election of Obama not automatically put an end to the corrosive practices and problems that permeate our political discourse. I don’t worry so much about Republicans at this point — as long as they remain the Party of Palin, ejecting anyone who doesn’t follow the “God, guns, and no gays” doctrine, they won’t be able to do more than nip at Obama’s heels and be unnecessarily obstructionist. No, the real problem is the power that lies beyond both parties — the influences and interests that they pay heed to. Until we can break the stranglehold that corporate power has on the country, we can’t expect to see anything like the real change many of us voted for last year.

As downbeat as this sounds, I have faith we can do it. There’s a rising tide of anger in the country as we realize how much of our future has been taken away from us. My generation will be the first to enjoy a lower standard of living than the one before me. Rising health care costs make it nearly impossible to invest in the kinds of things that guarantee stability — home ownership, retirement funds, etc. And those, as we’ve seen, can be wiped out on a whim thanks to the “invisible hands” that dictate the market’s ebbs and flows. If we can harness that rage and move past the manipulation that drives people to join the “tea parties” into real, constructive dialogue, we can get somewhere. When people like Alan Grayson and Ron Paul can break bread, it’s a sign that we’re building new coalitions that can move past the typical bipartisan, two-party bicameral dynamic, into a real movement that represents the people, not the pocketbooks.

Unfortunately, it looks more and more like Obama is going to be an obstacle to that goal, not an aid. It’s not what I voted for, but it is what I expected, and that means it’s unavoidable. But when you can’t avoid something, you do what is left to you — you go right through it, full-bore. Ironically, the superhuman eloquence and charisma that inspired me to support Obama when Edwards dropped out (before we knew he was a two-timer) are the same fuel we can use to achieve the real change we need in this country– the change that, as Obama often invoked from Gandhi, we need to be in ourselves and the world.